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  1. Oct 23, 2024Prediction Markets are another finance-theory-inspired innovation, bringing the power of a market mechanism to bear on questions concerning the likelihood of future events of all sorts ...
    Author:George Calhoun
  2. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

    Oct 25, 2024One reason prediction markets have problems is the absence of sufficient dumb money to allow the smart money to overcome the vig. Prediction markets are a way of aggregating knowledge and harnessing the wisdom of crowds. To first order, just about any aggregation of forecasts will do better than individual guesses.
  3. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

    Forecasting elections using prediction markets has a theoretical appeal, as people are betting their own money so are motivated to get things right. ... Whether they forecast better or worse than models is an empirical question - our work (in the paper you linked to in your post) shows that in 2020 they did better than the Economist model ...
  4. cambridge.org

    Prediction markets create contracts that pay a fixed amount if an event occurs, and then allow people to trade on the contract by submitting buying or selling prices in a manner similar to the stock market. ... (Brier, 1950). For questions with binary outcomes, Brier scores range from 0 to 2, where 0 is best and 2 is worst. Suppose the ...
  5. bnnbloomberg.ca

    Nov 4, 2024For elections, however, there's much dissent over whether prediction markets are better than models that use historical data to convert poll results into probabilities of the outcome. A 2012 paper concluded that betting markets stopped having much added value after the introduction of polling. In the 2020 and 2022 elections, Sethi found that ...
  6. worksinprogress.co

    May 17, 2024Many entrepreneurs have tried to create prediction markets, contracts that trade on the outcome of future events. Luke Nosek, cofounder of PayPal, once worked on the problem. Sam Bankman-Fried, the jailed founder of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, is supposed to have originally wanted to build a prediction markets platform. A number of venture capital-backed start-ups are currently building ...
  7. morningstar.com

    Nov 14, 2024"Saying that markets for election betting can forecast the future better than others is to say that gamblers are better at predicting the future than most Americans," a Better Markets ...
  8. astralcodexten.com

    More generally, studies usually find that prediction markets beat the average person, various experts, and various other methods like election polling.They are somewhere between equal-to and slightly-worse-than complicated aggregation algorithms, but these complicated aggregation algorithms are rarely used in real life, and I consider them to be "prediction markets lite", ie part of the ...
  9. Prediction Markets and Worse is Better. If you like reading bad news, it's a great time to be alive. Not that the world is in a terrible state; most of the long-term graphs look pretty good, actually! ... many smart people have proposed prediction markets as a way to get better estimates of the odds of geopolitical events. You could bet on oil ...
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